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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.