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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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