Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Rachel Miranda
Rachel Miranda

A passionate gaming enthusiast with years of experience in reviewing and analyzing online slot games for better player insights.

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